諾獎得主警告美國股市泡沫

Fears mount over US stocks bubble

英國《金融時報》 投資編輯約翰˙奧瑟茲 紐約報道

A growing number of investors believe that US stocks are overvalued, creating the risk of a significant bear market, according to research by Yale University market scholar Robert Shiller.

根據(jù)耶魯大學(xué)市場研究學(xué)者羅伯特?席勒(Robert Shiller)的研究，越來越多投資者相信美國股市被高估了，這制造了股市出現(xiàn)大熊市的風(fēng)險。

The Nobel economics laureate told the Financial Times that his valuation confidence indices, based on investor surveys, show greater fear that the market is overvalued than at any time since the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000.

這位諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎得主告訴英國《金融時報》，他根據(jù)投資者調(diào)查編制的估值信心指數(shù)表明，目前投資者對于股市被高估的憂慮大于2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫高峰后的任何時間。

“It looks to me a bit like a bubble again with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and at the same time people losing confidence in the valuation of the market,” he said.

“在我看來這有點像是又一個泡沫，基本上股價在2009年后僅6年的時間里上升了兩倍，同時人們正在失去對股市估值的信心，”他說。

However, he made clear it remains impossible to time any fall in the market, and cast doubt on whether stocks would drop should the Federal Reserve raise rates later this week. “I’m not looking for any big effect,” he said. “It’s been talked about for so long, everyone knows that it’s coming. It’s just not much of a big deal.”

然而，他明確表示現(xiàn)在還不可能預(yù)測市場會在什么時候下跌，并且質(zhì)疑了假如美聯(lián)儲(Fed)在本周晚些時候加息，股市會因此下跌的前景。“我不期望任何重大影響，”他表示，“這件事已經(jīng)被談?wù)摿撕荛L時間，每個人都知道它會到來。這實在稱不上一件大事。”

He added there was no historical evidence for a link between interest rates and share prices. “You would think that when interest rates are higher people would sell stocks, but the financial world just isn’t that simple.”

他還補(bǔ)充道，沒有歷史根據(jù)表明利率和股價之間存在聯(lián)系。“你可能會認(rèn)為當(dāng)利率更高的時候人們會賣出股票，但金融世界沒那么簡單。”